Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
