Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
